I was told never to look up safety statistics of chicken buses here in Guatemala. I was told that if you did, you would probably never ride them. So, I didn’t look them up. Until today.

The Case

A quick refresher on the mystical origins of “chicken buses” – chicken buses or camionetas are retired school buses from the United States that mysteriously make their way into many Central American countries and obviously, to Guatemala. They are repainted and re-branded, sporting shades of colors you couldn’t even imagine adorning a bus, and ripping off brands that don’t really align with the transportation industry (found one with the Playboy bunny once). They are almost creative masterpieces of art. They are also notorious for their need for speed around the mountains of Guatemala, feeling sometimes more like over-stuffed roller-coasters without seat-belts. So yes, it can be thrilling if that is your thing. And oh, they do get robbed occasionally, and drivers have been killed by gangs to facilitate a successful heist of the rest of hapless populous in the bus.

All the above quite directly points to a high perceived level of peril. But I am a numbers guy, so, contrary to popular advice, I wanted to quantify the likelihood of my death on this real, government-subsidized “public transport” option. What I found will blow you away. That is, if you care about these kinds of things. If not, your life won’t really change much.

The Evidence

After my admittedly rapid (but efficient) research on God’s gift to Earth (Google), I found that Guatemala is ranked as the 64^th most dangerous by the WHO when it comes to road deaths per 100,000 people. About 22 people out of every 100,000 die due to road accidents here. For context, that’s 0.022%. For more context, Zimbabwe, which gets the honor of being #1 on the list, is at 75 people out of every 100,000, almost 4 times more. For even more context, and I don’t mean to get too dark with this, but there is a higher chance of a Guatemalan dying of Diabetes (70 people out of every 100,000) than you dying in a road accident in Guatemala. Granted, this research is not specifically related to chicken buses, but it can’t be all that more (or “significantly more”) dangerous. That’s because chicken buses are most definitely a part of the subset, and I have not really been impressed by the average non-chicken-bus Guatemalan driver. I tried looking for numbers on chicken buses specifically, but my robust twenty minutes of research did not pull any meaningful information. All I found was anecdotal evidence or what I like to call  scary-stories-that-foster-irrational-fear (SSTFIF) evidence.

This quote from the United States Bureau of Diplomatic Security exemplifies some classic SSTFIF evidence. Notice the number of data points they use while describing public transportation in Guatemala:

Safety of public transportation: Poor

The most common resource for public transportation is the network of informal bus lines. These bus routes are serviced by brightly colored, recycled school buses. The buses are poorly maintained, and the drivers are barely qualified, creating an untenable security situation. Additionally, these bus lines are prime targets for extortions and robberies. Bus drivers are habitually assaulted or murdered while on their routes as a consequence of the growing extortion problem.

Or I can do the math for you – number of data points used: 0.

The Conclusion

Look, I am not saying your chicken bus is not going to fly off a hill and into the lake. All I am saying is that after my super-extensive fifteen minutes of research, the overall evidence tells us that there is a much higher probability of you being just fine. You might get robbed, but you will most definitely get a good story out it. Also, you should not fear looking up safety statistics of chicken buses in Guatemala. But, if you do find some data to the contrary that didn’t surface during my rigorous ten minutes of googling, you don’t need to share it with me. I rather not know. Because who am I kidding, ignorance is bliss.